Take 5: Deal or no deal

Take 5: Deal or no deal

(Reuters) – – 1/ STICKY TALKS

Britain and the European Union are mentioned to be on the verge of clinching a post-Brexit commerce deal that might regulate their relationship after the transition interval ends on Jan. 1, 2021 — six weeks away.

Diplomats say three sticking factors stay and EU leaders are stressing the necessity to put together for a no-deal. Brexit deadlines have come and gone a number of instances up to now, however negotiators are making a last push and the consensus is London and Brussels will come to some form of settlement – probably a bare-bones cope with particulars to be determined down the road.

Latest features in sterling and UK shares <.FTMC> suggest belongings are pumped up by hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and a Brexit deal. They may very well be in for a rocky trip.

(GRAPHIC – Brexit: a rollercoaster trip for the pound: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qzjpqoowrpx/Pastedpercent20imagepercent201605849973368.png)

2/SHOPPING SIGNALS

In a typical yr, U.S. buyers could be gearing up for “Black Friday,” the kick-off occasion for the vacation season. However that is 2020. Surging coronavirus instances make the acquainted scenes of customers crowding into shops to snap up bargains unlikely.

Oxford Economics expects vacation gross sales to rise solely 0.6% from a yr in the past resulting from a confluence of COVID-19, struggling incomes and a weak job market. Macy’s expects a tricky time with a potential 20% gross sales decline over the autumn.

Retailers aren’t all gloomy: Walmart forecasts a promising vacation season. Upcoming earnings from Nordstrom, Hole and Greenback Tree will supply extra pointers.

The Solactive-ProShares Bricks and Mortar Retail Retailer index <.SOEMTYTR> barely outperformed the S&P500 this yr, however that pales in opposition to a 70% leap at Amazon, the winner of the stay-at-home economic system. -Walmart forecasts promising vacation season as on-line gross sales soar-Does vaccine promise put U.S. customers in a purchasing temper? Retailers might have clues.

(GRAPHIC – Amazon versus S&P 500 retailers: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/xklvybbmopg/Pastedpercent20imagepercent201605864878229.png)

3/ PMI PESSIMISM

Flash readings of November enterprise exercise from Europe and the USA on Monday will reveal simply how dangerous the harm was from the resurgent coronavirus and the restrictions imposed to include it.

Having bounced off the preliminary COVID-19 trough, world PMIs are once more teetering round 50 – the barrier between growth and contraction.

The hit this time should not be as extreme, with restrictions much less harsh and companies higher ready. But when market response to the most recent weaker-than-expected U.S. knowledge is something to go by, traders might err on the aspect of warning till a vaccine is rolled out, fiscal stimulus in Europe and the U.S. is confirmed and indicators of a rebound are entrenched.

(GRAPHIC – International PMIs brace for hit from the second coronavirus wave: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dgkvlajnxpb/PMIs1911.PNG)

4/ WON WATCH

South Koreans are looking forward to a strengthening foreign money. Nobody expects the Financial institution of Korea to do a lot about already record- low rates of interest when it meets on Thursday.

As a substitute, all eyes are on foreign money markets, the place the central financial institution is believed to be promoting the gained to cease it hitting 1,100 per greenback – a line that will carry ache to an economic system using on tech exports.

Different nations face an identical dilemma. Asia’s fast rebound from the pandemic and better yields, coupled with a slower tempo of funding and imports create a goldilocks-like stability of funds tailwind for currencies.

Authorities in Thailand and China are additionally actively massaging features within the baht and yuan. Indonesia and the Philippines have used the chance to ship shock charge cuts this month.

(GRAPHIC – Asia present accounts: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xegpbqqagvq/Pastedpercent20imagepercent201605845166054.png)

5/ A BIT MORE?

Bitcoin has soared greater than 150% this yr, to inside touching distance of the 2017 report highs of round $20,000. Many anticipate the rally to finish in tears, because it did three years in the past when bitcoin crashed 50% inside a month.

Others differ: Calling it the brand new gold, Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick predicted bitcoin would soar previous $300,000 inside 12 to 24 months. Bitcoin followers cite improved market infrastructure, a higher mainstream investor presence and higher liquidity for why they suppose this rally has legs.

Whereas central banks are in full money-printing mode, bitcoin provide is capped. However it’s nonetheless a unstable, retail-dominated market with patchy regulation and frequent hacks. For now, the bulls seem in command.

(GRAPHIC – Bitcoin vs. inflation hedge belongings: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jbyvremdope/Pastedpercent20imagepercent201605671610472.png)

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tommy Wilkes, Tom Wilson in London and Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore. Compiled by Sujata Rao, edited by Karin Strohecker, Larry King)

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